[Salon] Taiwan tensions No 1 in Beijing’s top 10 geopolitical risks of 2026

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Taiwan tensions No 1 in Beijing’s top 10 geopolitical risks of 2026: think tank

Most consequential external security variable may be uncertainty in the US ahead of the midterm elections in November, report warns

SCMP

Shi Jiangtao

Published: 3:14pm, 9 Mar 2026Updated: 3:42pm, 9 Mar 2026

Escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait remain Beijing’s foremost external security concern for 2026, fuelled by uncertainties surrounding the US midterm elections and the growing involvement of Japan, according to a prominent Chinese think tank.

In its latest annual forecast of China’s external security risks, the Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University framed this year as a pivotal moment in the profound reshaping of China’s outer defence environment.

Based on surveys and interviews with dozens of senior experts, the CISS report identified three defining features of the 2026 landscape, including the deepening fusion of economic security with geopolitics.

An expansion of the US-led technology containment strategy and global narratives around a “second China shock” – tied to China’s persistent trade surpluses – may intensify protectionism in the US, EU and beyond, the report said.

A potential “three seas linkage” across the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait and South China Sea could lead to “an unprecedented level” of actions by the US and allies like Japan and the Philippines, creating resonant pressures and “triggering chain reactions”, it warned.

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Regardless of the outcome of the midterm elections in November, the United States’ “technological blockade against China may shift from a ‘transactional shock’ to a ‘systemic containment’,” the report noted.

The interplay of “grey rhinos” and “black swans” – terms for predictable but neglected dangers and unexpected risks, respectively – may raise the stakes for cascading escalations, testing China’s strategic judgment and crisis management mechanisms.

High-probability risks, such as sustained tensions over Taiwan, a stand-off in the South China Sea or tech decoupling, may coincide with “low-probability, high-impact events like North Korea’s nuclear test, regime change in Iran, unexpected deaths of leaders of major powers” or a partial bursting of the AI bubble, it said.

The report ranked 10 major external risks facing Beijing, with an escalation in the Taiwan Strait at the forefront, followed by a potential China-Japan confrontation and a US-led decoupling of technology and supply chains.

In fourth place was the risk of continuing disputes in the South China Sea, according to the report, which ranked global financial instability next with a spillover of the Russia–Ukraine war at No 6.

Trade frictions between China and the European Union came next, followed by AI-driven cyberattacks and terrorist threats to Belt and Road Initiative projects. At 10th place in the report’s ranking was North Korea’s nuclear provocations.

The most consequential variable may be the mounting uncertainty in a politically divided Washington as it heads towards the midterms, according to the report.

Taiwan was becoming increasingly instrumentalised in that context, fuelling persistent “high winds and waves” across the strait, it said.

“The intense unpredictability of US domestic politics may severely test the [Donald] Trump administration’s willingness and ability to implement the ‘Busan consensus’ between China and the US,” the report said, referring to agreements reached during President Xi Jinping’s meeting with his US counterpart in South Korea last year.

The CISS assessment assumes the unpredictability of the second Trump administration – as shown by legislation such as last year’s Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act – is adding to existing structural pressures between Beijing and Washington.

It remains unclear if recent developments, including delays in US arms announcements and Trump’s engagement with Xi ahead of a planned visit to Beijing, will ease or complicate tensions in the Taiwan Strait flashpoint.

“The situation in the Taiwan Strait is the primary risk to China’s security,” the report said, citing US arms sales, Japan’s hardening position and the self-ruled island’s promotion of “independence” activities as factors creating multiple “high-risk windows”.

Unexpected developments between April and May in high-level US-China interactions could prompt Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te to “stage provocations” around his May 20 inauguration anniversary, it warned.

As the midterm elections approached, US politicians may find incentives to intensify their use of the “Taiwan card”, the report said.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

US military deployment of advanced unmanned systems and intelligent weaponry could heighten risks of “multilevel conflict” while Japan’s role added another layer of volatility, it cautioned.

Beijing’s ties with Tokyo hit a new low after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested in November that an attack on Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response. Despite Beijing’s efforts to isolate Tokyo internationally, the Takaichi government has remained defiant, particularly after its landslide electoral victory last month.

The report concluded that Tokyo was expected to “continue its aggressive actions in several areas, such as sending ministerial-level officials to visit Taiwan, inviting Taiwanese leaders to Japan, selling or transferring coastguard vessels and directly linking the Taiwan Strait issue to Japanese security in official documents”.

Shi Jiangtao

A former diplomat, Shi Jiangtao has worked as a China reporter at the Post for more than a decade. He's interested in political, social and environmental development in China.